Журнал экологических опасностей

Climate Change Scenarios and Crop Flood Stress in South Africa: A Critical Discussion

Abstract

Priscilla Ntuchu Kephe, Brilliant Mareme Petja and Kingsley K Ayisi

In assessing the relationships between crop productivity and future climate change, a combination of climate change scenarios, environmental conditions and resultant crop yields information are utilized. Recent progress in simulating the impacts of future climate change on crops is focused on increased temperature, and little attention is paid to the possibility of flood stress or on the exploration of adaptation options related to flood stress. As part of this review, this relationship is discussed in the context of crop response to predicted flood stress from climate change. Impacts of floods on crop production are reviewed, with a primary focus on climate change scenario in South Africa. The challenges associated with impacts and adaptation researches related to flood stress are limitless. It is therefore argued that, the generation of knowledge for policy and adaptation in South Africa should be based not only on one aspect of climate change but on a more synergistic and holistic research framework that includes: (i) Reliable quantification of uncertainty in relation to extreme rainfall events, possible flooding and waterlogging conditions; (ii) techniques and approaches for observations that focus on fundamental processes inclusive of flood; and (iii) provision of judicious accounts for the principal drivers of crop productivity, which may well include both biophysical and socioeconomic factors. Such a framework will lead to reliable real-world adaptation options in a situation of flood stress.