Международный журнал экономики и менеджмента

Productivity and Performance of U.S. Economic Growth: 1948-2015

Abstract

Md Niaz Murshed Chowdhury

This paper raises basic questions about the performance of economic growth. The paper is only about the United States and views the future from 2015-2015 while pretending that the financial crisis did not happen. The sample period for investigation in 1945-2015 the empirical analysis of this study employed annual secondary data, collected from different sources, which are time series data. Growth gradually accelerated after 1750, reached a peak in the middle of the 20th century, and has been slowing down since. Three influential factors of growth are less the labor force, technology, and capital. Growth of technology is the most influential and thus special attention should be given its advancement. A key idea to take away from this paper is that while a model that fit the current data well, it may weigh recent events to heavily, recessionary or exponential growth, the average between the most optimistic and pessimistic models may be the best bet. Technology makes up the greatest fraction of total production and changes in labor and capital would not affect the growth rate as much as technology can and it was projected that in 20 years, the GDP level could be anywhere from $19,138.8 using the polynomial model to $34,681.8 using the first order exponential model. The growth rate of GDP is at 2.07% as of 2015, but using the first order exponential model, it will slow down to 1.38% by 2035.